Teacher Recruitment Forecast: Progress, but Challenges Remain
Applications to initial teacher training have risen by 10 per cent, analysis shows - but schools will still face a “squeeze”, the National Foundation for Educational Research has warned.
NFER school workforce lead Jack Worth said the new analysis suggests the teacher recruitment picture is “better than last year”, but that this “doesn’t mean recruitment and retention issues are over”.
The think tank’s forecast of the 2025-26 ITT census recruitment shows secondary recruitment will still fall 15 per cent below target, despite the rise in applications.
Mr Worth described the forecast as a “remarkable turnaround”, with maths, English, science, history and geography all expected to meet or exceed targets when final data is published in December.
Applications data up to September show a 10 per cent rise overall, including 30-40 per cent increases in physics and computing, and a 9 per cent rise in primary applications.
Physics, music and drama well below target
“More subjects are likely to hit or exceed their target than in the last three or four years. That’s a positive,” he told Tes.
But Mr Worth added: “For secondary overall, our forecast is 84 per cent of target. It’s still below, even if some subjects are above.”
Physics, design and technology, music, RE and drama are among those still well below target, according to the NFER’s forecast, while biology and PE are expected to be far above.
In total, nine out of 17 secondary subjects are predicted to fall short of target.
The official target for recruiting postgraduates into initial teacher training for next year has been reduced as teacher retention is forecast to improve.
The Department for Education has set a target of 26,920 trainees in 2025-26, a 19.3 per cent fall on this year. The primary trainee target is 7,650, down 18.6 per cent, and the secondary target is 19,270, down 19.6 per cent.
The DfE said falling pupil numbers, better retention forecasts and deferred entrants explain the reduced target. Or perhaps it budget shortfalls and wishful thinking. We'll see. Oh, and what about the bulge in the size of the secondary cohort?
